The prime minister timed his recent India visit almost perfectly. For Nepalis unable to return for the Dasain-Tihar holidays, the visit seemed to bring a bit of the festivities from back home. It didn’t matter that the prime minister was unable to speak with them or even offer them a message. Just having him in the country was enough.
The prime minister arrived a few days before Diwali, the time of year when Indian generosity is at its peak. Naturally, the visit was successful. India extended a $200 million credit facility, offered to supply more electricity, agreed to examine a number of bilateral issues and committed to encouraging investment in Nepal. Had he extended his trip an additional day till Dhanteras, when India celebrates wealth, he might have been able to bargain for more.
By Sunday afternoon, when the time prime minister and his delegation had returned home, Nepali flags on the boulevards of India Gate had been replaced by Bhutanese ones. Indians had settled down to watch their cricket team extract revenge on the visiting British. Back home in Nepal, the returning prime minister was greeted with applause and protests – commended for securing strong agreements and berated for selling out to the Indians.
Beyond the tamasha of the prime minister’s India visit was a different reality. Kancha was still boiling tea, ferrying beer, steaming momo, washing plates and hauling bricks. Bahadur hadn’t moved from his seat at the gate, maintaining a careful watch over his master’s house. These unsung heroes, working class Nepali men and women whose meager savings from foreign labor provides Nepal’s its biggest and most vital economic lifeline, went unnoticed yet again.
Maybe one day India’s generosity, goodwill and the promise of economic integration will transform Nepal. In the meantime, the sweat of Nepali labor abroad remains Nepal’s most reliable income source. Perhaps, the best bet for our economic future lies not in the generosity of our neighbors, but in the greatest asset all around us – ourselves, Nepali men and women.
LUNCHEON IN THE CLOUDS
On Friday, the day after his arrival, the prime minister and his delegation attended a lunch meeting with Indian businesses. The speeches had the usual messages about looming opportunities in Nepal and India’s failure to adequately invest in it. The prime minister made his case to Indian business, remaining hopeful about the peace process and describing his initiatives for improving the economic environment.
Nobody was listening. The meeting hosted jointly by India’s three leading business chambers didn’t even have any of their presidents or the secretary generals in attendance. Maybe real business meetings take place away from the public view, within Delhi’s corridors and in the many receptions that marked the visit. But from that particular business meeting, it was clear that Nepal’s economic story hadn’t yet found an audience.
Beyond the tamasha of the prime minister’s India visit was a different reality. Kancha was still boiling tea, ferrying beer, steaming momo, washing plates and hauling bricks. Bahadur hadn’t moved from his seat at the gate, maintaining a careful watch over his master’s house.
The prime minister might have been better served by hopping on an auto and driving through the city. He would have met many Nepali men and women that would have told him about how they had left their homes and families in search of opportunities abroad. He would have heard a variety of Nepali voices: From a busboy in a tea shop to a manager in a high-tech firm; from a guard in a Delhi hotel to an owner of a hotel; from a coolie at the local alcohol shop to the owner of an alcohol business; from a prostitute in Delhi’s red-light area to the pimp that put her there.
Some would have had stories of success about how India has offered new meaningful opportunities. Many would have had tales of despair about work in squalid conditions, poor wages and exploitive arrangements. Within those varied narratives, he would have found a common theme – the determination of Nepali men and women to work hard in the best opportunity that they could find.
Today, over $3 billion is remitted home annually by Nepali workers in India and other parts of the world. It accounts for over a fifth of our total economy. It is Nepal’s biggest source of income, larger than development assistance and exports combined. It finances domestic consumption and helps pay for imports. Over the last decade, remittances have grown steadily, emerging as the most reliable component of our economy. It has single handedly saved our economy from collapse. The remittance economy touches the lives of a vast number of Nepalis, from the rich to the poor and across a wide cross-section of socio-economic backgrounds.
Yet, on Friday afternoon, in the opulence of Delhi’s most expensive hotel, the prime minister and his 50 member delegation appeared to have entirely missed this economic reality. Except for minor references, no one spoke much of it. In the tantalizing dreams about what Indian investments can do for Nepal’s economic future, it is easy to overlook what shapes us today. But as we wait for the benevolence of our neighbors to unfold, we might as well start making do with what we have. Resurrect our future with the opportunities we currently have, in better and smarter ways.
NAVIGATING THE CROSSROADS
The mistake we make, as did the prime minister and his delegation, is in refusing to believe in the reality of remittances. For a long time now, Nepal’s government and policymakers have recognized the growing importance of remittances. But they have typecast overseas employment as a transient phenomenon, representing mostly low-skilled opportunities that Nepalis accept simply because they have no alternate opportunity at home. There are also traditional notions that Nepalis would prefer to be remain in Nepal if adequate domestic opportunities were to be available.
Such perceptions have helped fuel an impression of a long-term “remittance trap” – the notion that a steady flow of remittances removes the pressure for real domestic changes and merely perpetuates a culture of emigration. As a result, investments and programs to improve the competitiveness of Nepalis for overseas job markets have been severely lacking.
Our government’s impressions of the remittance economy are outdated. It reflects a narrow view of the world. Nepalis seek jobs abroad not merely because they can’t find one at home. Broader structural changes sweeping the world are also driving those opportunities and linkages. Countries that are industrializing, urbanizing, transitioning to a service economy or in the process of large-scale demographic changes need different types of workers at different points of their evolution.
There is almost a continuum of countries along the evolution process. This global structural transformation will continue to create cross-border employment opportunities not only in low-paying, low-skill jobs but across the full range of requirements, including the high-value knowledge economy. Fueled by better transport and telecommunication connectivity, such opportunities are likely to deepen and expand.
A proper appreciation of the remittance economy and what it means to our economic future will help us realize that we are at an important cross-road of our history. Will we build our economic policies for next decade looking at the possibilities within our borders? Or will we build economic policies for the next decade looking at the possibilities far beyond our borders? Will we spend the next decade waiting for India to supply us more electricity power? Or will we build the plants in India ourselves and ship the power home?
The answers is likely to lie somewhere between the extremes. We need Indian, and other foreign investment to enhance our infrastructure and build up industrial capacity. Our domestic economy must grow. Simultaneously, though, we need to look beyond our borders. We need to enhance job opportunities for Nepalis abroad and find ways in which Nepali businesses can establish and operate in foreign markets.
Whether we will believe in ourselves and confidently step out into the world remains to be seen. But next time the prime minister and his delegation are abroad, they should draw inspiration from the millions of Nepalis workers abroad to see what all is possible.
The writer is Vice President of ICF International, a global advisory services firm. He is based in New Delhi. Views are personal
bishal_thapa@hotmail.com
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