Due to ongoing international instability, humanity has been seriously threatened. The prospect of peace is now more important than ever given the horrific tragedies that human civilization is currently facing. An Amnesty International report claims that the "Trump effect" is seriously undermining human rights around the world. The idea of a "Alliance for Peace," advanced by the United Nations Alliance for Civilizations (UNAOC), has been a noteworthy endeavor, while some states are uniting for war and non-state actors, such as terrorists, are integrating for crime and terrorism.
Trump, Tariff, Terror,&Truce
Trump’s first foreign trip to the Middle East for a three-country—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE—visit in the second term has brought both hope and despair to the Arab world. Hope in the sense that after claiming diplomatic success in ending the India-Pakistan conflict, at least temporarily, he is believed to make a dramatic move in bringing the Israel-Palestine conflict to a logical end. While all three host nation’s leaders urged Trump to take immediate action to end the suffering in Gaza, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, expressed his solidarity concern regarding the humanitarian situation there. Despair in the sense that Trump is fully loaded with“geopolitics” and hundreds of billion dollar “mega business deals”with the three richest nations in the Arab world. No plan for rebuilding Gaza was included as a preference in this visit, while Trump’s “Riviera of Gaza” has already thwarted most of the Arab nations.
One may now wonder what Trump actually gave to the Middle East, particularly to the innocent people of Gaza.
The lifting sanctions on Syria following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad could not only help “normalize” US-Syria diplomatic relations but also deepen its influence in the Middle East. Trump’s prompt decision to meet with the new Syrian president in Saudi Arabia and willingness to attend the prospective Putin-Zelensky meeting in Turkey reflects not only his wider interest in peace and stability, but also a hanker for shouldering the credit. Remarkably, the US has not entered into any type of war during Trump’s first 125 days in the office. Yet, how he takes initiatives to end the Israel-Palestine conflict and initiate concrete action for the future of Gaza would define his true intention for absolute peace and stability in the Arab world and beyond.
The United States, however, has abandoned its commitment to several engagements since the Vietnam War. After Iraq, Afghanistan is a frustrating example of a failed US foreign policy, while Libya is another example of its foreign policy blunder. The US has already shown its malice to the world in a live television broadcast in Ukraine’s case, yet the latter’s situation is very different from all the others.
Since Trump has continuously claimed Greenland for international security, the US may invade it under Trump, claim the global thinkers. If so, what would be the role of NATO, since both the US and Denmark are NATO members? The EU might possibly defend Denmark, considering it as an “invasion of Europe”, which could sternly divide the US and the EU.
Greening Our Path to Peace: The Link between Environment, Peace...
Since Iran has maintained closer ties with Russia, China, Turkey, and other US adversaries, it is reportedly far more powerful and strategically fortified than Iraq and Libya. Targeting Iran and North Korea would be the US's next "blunder," which could have more serious repercussions for the entire world, more importantly for the US.
Presumably, the idea that a nation with nuclear weapons could so readily surrender its weapons and degrade itself will only be a political fiction. Can the US, Russia, or other nuclear powers do this? Iran and North Korea might not relinquish their nuclear capabilities so fervently. Unlike suggested by Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton, the US cannot compel North Korea to push into the "Libya Model" or Iran to the "Iraq Method." Adopting the 2003 invasion of Iraq or the 2004 disarmament of Libya as models would be the biggest blunder in US foreign policy history, warn the foreign policy experts.
The current conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and the possible US-Iran engagement could exacerbate international unrest, but they still may not lead to a major global war. It is still unlikely that a catastrophic world war will break out until China and the US engage in direct military combat. But the Taiwan issue might be the decisive factor that pushes the two superpowers to engage in direct confrontation, sparking World War III.
The US might be less inclined to defend Taiwan when China begins to take decisive action on the issue if there were no financial or technological interests, as there are with Ukraine. Therefore, Taiwan would suffer more than Ukraine due to its incapacity to manage relations with the mainland. If Taiwan could establish reliable ties with the mainland, perhaps its current status would endure for a quite long time and prevent the deadliest war in human history.
While China is expanding its ability to exert national power, it is also extending hands to a number of countries, including both US allies and adversaries, to form partnerships and alliances. Without interfering in the internal affairs of other nations, China is quietly, strategically, and smoothly building its strengths. But then, when it comes to its own national security affairs, China might rise or awaken with extraordinary power, prospects and alliances that none of the powers could possibly halt.
Stand for Peace Diplomacy
The majority of nations in the region and beyond face common challenges, including terrorism, crime, poverty, unemployment, security, and transnational issues, which no nation can resolve on their own. The only way for the countries to fight these shared bilateral and transnational issues is through the spirit of peace, trust, and cooperation. Therefore, maintaining security systems would require trustful international harmony and cooperation. The framework of "strong and inclusive" broader integration can be used to develop a sustainable economic and security architecture. This could take into consideration a number of factors, including socio-politics, economy, security, culture, religion, technology, and ecology among others. In essence, a united spirit of peace and security architecture is more urgent than a fractured approach to combating war, crime, and terrorism followed by great suffering.
South Asia needs to acknowledge that now is the time for prosperity, security, and stability—all of which can only be achieved with a "strong and inclusive" security architecture. If the continent can foster enduring peace, China and India won't have to turn to the third world for trade, survival, alliances or partnerships. In order to create a comprehensive security and economic architecture, South Asian leaders must rise above political rhetoric and take concrete action to promote a "culture of peace" against the "culture of war" in all geopolitical, bilateral, economic, and diplomatic spheres.
Due to the geopolitical and geostrategic significance of South Asia in the global political spectrum, all the nations in the continent must assume equal responsibility for a peace process that would increase the region's significance as a vibrant subcontinent for trade, economy, diplomacy, and politics. Realizing the prospects of “Peace to Prosperity,” all of them need to step ahead to avail an immense plethora of opportunities.
China’s prompt condemnation of the recent Kashmir attack reflects a soft tone towards India. China and India, in recent years, are stepping ahead to mend ties. While India aims to be the fifth permanent member of the UN Security Council, China’s sympathetic tone towards India would be meaningful.
With its innovative "zero tariff" or "free trade" policy, China is practicing sensible trade diplomacy at a time when the US is exercising its coercive tariff power with nearly every nation in the world, including its friends, partners, and allies. In the context of potential US-China conflict, this would surely bring US allies and adversaries closer to China. China is presumably in such a strong position in world politics today that it would prevail in any conflict without being directly or indirectly involved. It seems that no nation in world politics has ever been as strategically resilient as China, or that no nation would ever find itself in such a strategic situation again.
Nepal is also in a fairly comfortable position in terms of international politics, diplomacy, and the economy at the moment, but it should still identify the main glitches, prospects and potentials. The US is considering a 10 percent tariff for Nepal, while it has imposed a 145 percent tariff on China and other nations. India is Nepal’s all-time SAFTA partner, while China has offered zero tariffs to LDCs, including Nepal. This demonstrates that despite the shifting global geo-political landscape, Nepal is one of the nations that enjoys the considerable sympathy—both economic and diplomatic—of the majority of the world's powers.
But even in the best of circumstances, how does Nepal leverage from them?
It would, indeed, be the country's aptitude, strength, sensitivity, rationality, and pragmatism. Thus far, the recent "SagarmathaSambaad" organized by Nepal has been a timely initiative to promote human interests and welfare, which could help with transnational issues. Nepal's path to peace, development, and prosperity, however, can be paved by how it adjusts its “tone” and “role” with major powers, including its immediate neighbors.
At a time when the powerful nations are terrifying smaller ones, terrorists are posing a serious threat, and the entire world is scared by unilateral and coercive tariff war imposed by President Trump, Vipassana diplomacy may be a useful instrument to advance world peace. While Buddha said “the entire universe is fluid”,“nothing is solid, permanent, and immutable”.“Every ‘thing’ is really an event; even a stone is a form of river, and a mountain is only a slow wave.” The contemporary world leaders need to “walk the path from ignorance” to conviction, knowledge, intelligence, sensibility, humanity, and rationality. Essentially, all nations, regardless of the size, power, economy, might, or strength, must project a "compassionate tone" in order to be committed to the peace diplomacy such that they together can accomplish the noble goal of a peaceful world order.
(This is the second part of the article published last week).
