Now that the Khil Raj Regmi government has called new Constituent Assembly polls for later this year, the county is switching into election mode. Despite chronic protest from a section of political parties, the new elections seem inevitable. Other political parties, including the major ones, have started readjusting their rhetoric and attuning strategies to the popular mood in order to influencing votes. The possible impact of social media is something being overlooked in the parties’ bandwagon to the November 19 elections. [break]
If we look back at the 2012 US presidential elections, the impact was critical. Barack Obama, who outdid his Republican rival Mitt Romney in election campaigning due to social networks, went on to clinch his second straight term at the White House. In Pakistan, former cricket star Imran Khan’s charisma could not win him premiership in the national polls last month. But his pioneering use of social media in elections in the Islamist republic surely shot his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party to the position of major opposition. In India, while pitching BJP’s Narendra Modi against the ruling Congress’s Rahul Gandhi as India’s potential prime minister, one of Modi’s strengths that the media has often highlights is his skills and flair for social media. With over a million people following him on Twitter, the Gujarat chief minister—now the frontman of BJP’s election campaign committee—captures the country’s youth imagination, unlike his media shy competitor, the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty scion who has yet to open a Twitter account. All these instances suggest the increasing political power of social media.
No matter how enthusiastic the euphoria over Facebook and Twitter has been, most Nepali politicians are reclusive, ironically to their own detriment. NC youth leader Gagan Thapa is the only political face to have figured on the 100 most liked Facebook personalities in Nepal, ranked 100th, as per social baker ratings. On Twitter, former PM and UCPN (Maoist) Vice-Chairman Baburam Bhattarai is the most followed political figure, with NC’s Thapa and pro-royalist RPPN Chairman Kamal Thapa being among a few politicians actively using the micro-blogging site. Except through fake user accounts, there are no traces of heavyweights such as NC chief Sushil Koirala, UML’s Jhalanath Khanal and UCPN (Maoist)’s Pushpa Kamal Dahal in social media. There is no conspicuous presence of their parties on social networks, clearly indicating their apathy to social media’s power as a political tool and its potential to impact elections.
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Media has a massive say in shaping public opinions. Social networks such as Facebook and Twitter provide a niche for any user to spark and spread political debates. In this age of internet, digital presence has become imperative for all mainstream mass media. Their news portals continually funnel content into social networks through their Facebook pages and Twitter feeds. Both users’ opinions and news contents travel rapidly from one network to another through different sharing features, potentially creating several virtual clusters of discussions. All this can make social networking sites likely avenues for amplified political discourses, enabling political parties and their leaders not only to gauge popular mood and fine-tune their election agendas, but also to influence the people through active, meaningful engagements for political gains. For instance, the public generally treats political matters with derision and disdain, but with the election date announced, we can see how the sarcasm in social media is, with snowballing effect, slowly changing into serious political commentary.
A recent NTA report puts Nepal’s teledensity at 71 percent. This has resulted in a dramatic rise in the number of people online. There are 1.9 million Facebook users in the country, according to social baker. The Twitter community is ever expanding. With more and more people taking to social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, LinkedIn and blogs, the mode of political communication today has changed. The traditional barriers of communication between politics and the public are crashing down. There were times when people listened to audio cassettes of political speeches, relied on hard copies of election manifestos, posters and pamphlets, and walked long distance simply to attend mass meets—and these were the only ways to get the message across. With technology at our disposal now, politicians no longer need to scramble against time to reach out to the masses on the street, in the park and at the ground. A case in point: Techno-savvy Indian leader Modi in his 3D speech during Gujarat elections in December last year addressed 53 locations across the state simultaneously. It could be a matter of debate as to how far the technology is tenable in Nepali context. However, even at a simplistic level, political parties and their leaders can always create Facebook pages, Twitter accounts and Youtube channels and tweet stances, share links and live stream their speeches to reach out to supporters and potential voters, and receive instant feedbacks. A recent study by Kathmandu-based Centre for Media Research revealed that of 625 Twitter users included in the survey, 84 percent believed that Twitter could be helpful for politicians to leverage their political clout. Clearly, the bottom line is—social media in itself does not offer opportunity, but politicians have to tap into technology, committing strong presence on social networks.
Nepal as a democratic polity lacks a strong civil society and media culture. Their weakness comes from Nepal’s system where politics is all-pervasive. To be precise, Nepali media is fragmented along various ideological lines, which leaves a lot to be desired in professional journalistic practice. While media houses are driven by certain corporate interests, media persons own allegiance to various political party-aligned camps such as Press Chautari, Press Union, and so on. Political commentators, analysts and civil society members have certain political prejudices. There is always a risk of misinformation, wrong analysis and biased commentary. The state lacks proper legal arrangements to regulate mushrooming online media outlets, some of which are said to be launched to especially influence the upcoming elections. In these troubled waters, social media offers political leaders a unique tool to cull such press propaganda, sidestepping journalists, publishers, political commentators and analysts, and address audience directly.
Politicians’ aversion to use of social media may in part have something to do with a little exaggeration of the appeal of Facebook and Twitter generation. In Nepal, real voters are in the village where, as per census 2011, an overwhelming 83 percent population still live, compared to an NTA-estimated 20 percent internet demographic which comprises mostly urban youth. But the seemingly small social media community actually represents some of the most informed citizens, who have the potential to influence offline audiences from what they hear, see, and interact on the social networking sites. While there can be no competition with election campaigning in the heat and dust of the countryside, the cumulatively increasing political implications of social media through virtual connectivity cannot be downplayed. It was newly proliferating TV channels that dominated the last CA elections, but this time it will be social media. However, no particular political party or politician is likely to have an edge over another because with their social media handicap, most of them are more or less on the same boat. Unlike in the US, social media, still at a nascent stage in Nepal, might not be the game changer, but its overall ability to impact campaigning and voting patterns in the forthcoming CA elections is unquestioned.
The writer is online editor, Republica
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