KATHMANDU, May 29: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has projected that global temperatures are likely to break records or remain close to record highs over the next five years due to climate change. This trend is expected to intensify climate-related risks and impacts on society, the economy, and sustainable development.
According to a report released on Wednesday, there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between now and 2028 will be warmer than 2024. Similarly, there is an 86 percent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than the average temperature between 1850 and 1900.
Similarly, the WMO estimates a 70 percent probability that the five-year average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, long-term average temperatures (over decades) are expected to remain below the 1.5°C threshold.
The report also predicts that the Arctic region will continue to warm faster than the global average. Significant regional variations in rainfall patterns are also anticipated.
Between 2025 and 2029, the annual average global near-surface temperature is projected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baselines.
Similarly, there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than the current warmest year on record, 2024. There is also an 86 percent likelihood that at least one year in this period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, the report does not provide year-by-year global temperature forecasts.
According to the report, the probability that the five-year average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5°C is estimated at 70 percent. This is 47 percent higher than the estimate in last year’s report (for the 2024–2028 periods) and 32 percent higher than the 2023 report (for 2023–2027).
Every additional degree of global temperature rise contributes to more harmful impacts such as intense heatwaves, extreme rainfall, severe droughts, melting of snow cover, sea ice and glaciers, increased ocean temperatures, and rising sea levels.
The report predicts that during the upcoming five winter seasons (November to March) from 2025 to 2029, the Arctic will warm at a rate 3.5 times higher than the global average. Specifically, Arctic winter temperatures are expected to be 2.4°C higher than the 30-year baseline average (1991–2020).
Between March 2025 and 2029, further reductions in sea ice concentration are expected in regions such as the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Similarly, the projected rainfall pattern for the summer months (May to September) from 2025 to 2029 indicates wetter-than-average conditions in regions such as the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Northern Siberia, compared to the 1991–2020 baseline period. In contrast, the Amazon region is expected to experience drier-than-average conditions during this season.
Except for the year 2023, recent years have seen above-average rainfall in the South Asian region, and this trend is forecast to continue through the 2025–2029 period, according to the report.
This updated report was developed in collaboration between the UK Met Office and the WMO. “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this report shows no sign of relief in the coming years,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett in a statement, “This means we will see increasing negative impacts on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet.”
The WMO’s Global Climate 2024 report, released in March, showed that the average global temperature in 2024 was 1.5°C higher than the 1850–1900 baseline. This made 2024 the hottest year in the past 175 years since temperature records began.
The scientific community has long warned that exceeding an average temperature increase of 1.5°C could trigger more severe impacts of climate change and an increase in extreme weather events.