KATHMANDU, May 6: Nepal is projected to become an aging society by 2111 BS, according to the 2021 national census. The census shows that around 80 percent of Nepalis are expected to live up to the age of 60—about 85 percent of women and 75 percent of men.
The National Statistics Office (NSO) presented this data at a press conference on Monday.
According to the NSO, 84.7 percent of people in the highest wealth quintile are expected to reach the age of 60, compared to only 77.7 percent in the poorest households. Among ethnic groups, hill Dalits have the lowest life expectancy rate at 72.8 percent, followed by Terai Dalits at 76.7 percent.
Binod Sharan Acharya, Director of the Population Division at the NSO, noted that global life expectancy increased significantly—from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019. He projected that it will continue to rise, reaching 77.1 years by 2050. Despite this progress, disparities still remain.
These disparities are more prominent in less developed countries. By 2050, experts estimate that one in every six people globally will be aged 65 or older. They also project a rapid increase in the elderly population in regions such as North Africa, Western Asia, and Latin America, and expect the number of centenarians to triple.
As both birth and death rates decline, Nepal is undergoing a rapid demographic transition. The share of the population aged 60 and above increased from 8.1 percent in 2011 (2068 BS) to 10.2 percent in 2021 (2078 BS). Experts estimate that Nepal will become an aging society by 2111 BS. This demographic shift is expected to create significant challenges in housing, healthcare, social security, and economic support systems.
Since 2048 BS, Nepal’s elderly population has nearly tripled. The population pyramid indicates a shift from a youth-dominated society to one with a growing elderly population—mainly driven by declining birth rates and rising migration abroad.
The child population is shrinking, and the working-age population is also decreasing, further raising the dependency ratio. The 2068 BS and 2078 BS censuses show regional variations in the elderly population. During this period, the elderly population in the hill region increased substantially.
In 2068 BS, the elderly population in the hills stood at 25.7 percent, rising to 43.6 percent by 2078 BS. The mountainous and Terai regions followed a similar trend, but the hill and mountain regions saw a faster increase in their elderly population than the Terai.
Languages spoken in Nepal
The 2021 census explored Nepal's linguistic diversity by asking three questions: about mother tongue, second language, and ancestral language. The results recorded 124 mother tongues, 117 second languages, and 124 ancestral languages.
Languages spoken in Nepal mainly belong to four major language families: Indo-European (Indo-Aryan), Sino-Tibetan, Austro-Asiatic, and Dravidian. In addition, Nepal also uses the Kusunda language and a sign language from the Indo-Pakistani sign language family.
Together, the Sino-Tibetan and Indo-European (Indo-Aryan) families account for 99.7 percent of Nepal’s population. While Nepali is the most widely spoken mother tongue, Director Acharya pointed out that it is spoken by less than half of the population—44.9 percent. Languages from other families constitute a relatively smaller share.
Nepal has 21 languages with more than 100,000 speakers, representing 95 percent of the total population. In contrast, 103 languages at the bottom of the list account for just 5 percent. This shows that although Nepal is linguistically diverse, the demographic distribution is highly uneven.
Acharya noted that wealthier individuals are over three times more likely to speak Nepali. He also emphasized that people with formal education are much more likely to speak Nepali as their mother tongue compared to the illiterate population. According to him, census data shows that the likelihood of speaking Nepali increases with education level.
Death rate highest in Koshi Province
According to the 2021 national census, Koshi Province has the highest death rate in Nepal.
The NSO released this information at a press conference on Monday. Among the seven provinces, Koshi recorded the highest death rate, while Karnali had the lowest.
The death rate in Koshi Province is 3.1 percent, while in Karnali it is 2.2 percent among the total non-institutional households (6,660,841). At the district level, Kapilvastu recorded the highest death rate at 3.8 percent, while Rukum West had the lowest at 1.8 percent. Nationwide, 2.9 percent of non-institutional households reported a death.
The 2021 census recorded 198,463 deaths across 192,178 households in the 12 months preceding census day. Among these, 114,996 (58 percent) were men and 83,517 (42 percent) were women.
Of the households that reported deaths, 97 percent recorded the death of one member, while 3 percent reported the deaths of two members. A small number of households experienced the deaths of up to six members during the year.
Crude death rate in Nepal
Nepal’s crude death rate—the number of deaths per 1,000 people—has been steadily declining. It was 10.2 per 1,000 people in 2058 BS, dropping to 7.3 in 2068 BS and further to 6.8 in 2078 BS.